Edited by W. Joseph Stroupe with the mission of explaining world events correctly via strategic analysis & forecasting
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| ►►►December 6, 2006 ►►►W. Joseph Stroupe |
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The Direction of US Foreign Policy: Steadfast Undertow vs. Surface Ebb and Flow |
►►►The media is rife with ebb and flow "analysis" and speculation about a supposed impending change of direction in US policy in Iraq, the wider Middle East region and on the world stage itself. However, such speculation is based almost entirely on the surface ebb and flow of daily events rather than upon the steadfast and cohesive undertow of factors and forces, both domestic and foreign, that genuinely drives the direction of US foreign policy. That undertow will permit no fundamental course change away from the previous six years characterized by hard line neo-conservative ascendancy in US foreign policy. In fact, that steadfast undertow is even gaining momentum as the US administration is increasingly faced with the stark choice between resignation to a dismal forfeiture on the one hand, or, on the other hand, an ardent, last-ditch stab at snatching success from the jaws of failure in a widening array of foreign policy crises, including Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, North Korea and more.
►It isn't merely the situation that Mr. Bush has been surrounded by "neocon" advisors who have misadvised and misled him. Rather, this administration has been characterized from the beginning by a hard line "neocon" Bush-Cheney axis. Its glue within and its potency without is entirely undiminished as respects US foreign policy, regardless of the Democrat election win and the embarrassing Iraq Study Group report.
All the relevant evidence suggests that Mr. Bush is virtually unbowed in the pursuit of his "neocon" foreign policy line in the aftermath of the Democrat election win and the release of the Iraq Study Group report. The administration has steadfastly refused to negotiate with Iran, as suggested by the ISG report, unless it first agrees to suspend uranium enrichment - a virtual cave-in for Iran, and therefore a non-starter.
Through its Press Secretary Tony Snow the administration directly contradicted the statement of the nominee for Defense Secretary Robert Gates to the effect that the US was not winning in Iraq, a statement that Mr. Gates made at the Senate confirmation hearings. This illustrates that Mr. Gates will be given no real power in his new post and that the President has not been genuinely affected in his foreign policy thinking.
A wide array of military experts are dismissing many of the ISG's recommendations on military strategy as either unworkable or acutely dangerous, stating that if they are implemented then Iraq will irreversibly descend quickly into full-blown chaos. Mr. Bush has those expert objections as well as a number of other recent Iraq reports that contradict the ISG report as a way out of implementing any of the ISG's recommendations that do not fit with his largely pre-conceived foreign policy notions. While Mr. Bush may decide to implement certain features of the ISG recommendations as a facade of compliance, he will not substantively change his foreign policy course.
By its own testimony and that of many former administration officials, this administration does not conduct foreign policy by the polls. Furthermore, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney are convinced that they possess courage and vision far beyond that of the general public and of other leaders currently in government, and that only future generations will come to appreciate that "fact". They both subscribe to a messianic outlook on foreign policy with respect to America's current and future positions in the world. They reside and operate from within an all-encompassing ideological bubble. These powerful ideological factors work to make the Bush-Cheney axis see itself as largely unaccountable for its foreign policy actions. That sense of unaccountability has been in evidence for the past six years and it continues to be in evidence right up until today, and will continue for the next two very dangerous years.
►North Korea's nuclear advances also constitute a ticking time bomb that, if allowed to go off on North Korea's terms, will hand the US very costly regional and geopolitical reverses.
The regime has threatened to share its missile and nuclear technologies with other "rogue" states and mounting evidence suggests it may already have done so with Iran. From the administration's perspective the regime cannot be permitted to carry on such activities. The US and its allies are attempting to put pressure on the regime via sanctions and naval embargo to either cave in or perhaps collapse, but not all powers in the region are cooperating at the desired level.
The US is significantly reinforcing its military assets within striking distance and has moved to complete its strike planning. The provocative actions of the regime show every sign of increasing and the US is readying the military option if it cannot succeed relatively soon in its sanction/embargo policy.
►►►Notwithstanding the surface ebb and flow of lesser factors and forces, the ever more potent undertow detailed here will continue to determine the genuine direction of US foreign policy - a direction that will continue along the lines of the past six years. Pointedly increased upheaval lies just ahead as the Bush administration is forced to deal with the effects of multiple foreign crises explosions largely of its own making.
| Note: This Gold version of the analysis is significantly condensed as compared to the full text Platinum version available only to subscribers. The Platinum version addresses head-on the issues of the additional, powerful components making up the undertow, components not identified in this Gold version, that genuinely determine the direction of US foreign policy. |
© Copyright 2004-2008 This article may not be reproduced, reprinted or otherwise disseminated, nor may its inherent distinctive and original ideas be used elsewhere without the prior written permission of W. Joseph Stroupe. No journalistic, analytical, editorial or forecasting substance from GeoStrategyMap.com may be republished or employed in any form without prior written permission. Send all requests for permission by email to: editor_in_chief@geostrategymap.com. |
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